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Mystery Box odds, in full

Every tier, every probability, and a calculator so you can see your chances before you open a box.

Tier breakdown

The four pull tiers

Odds are per order. Each Mystery Box order gets one pull from these tiers.

Jackpot Tier

Ultimate pull

Hole-in-One

The rarest pull — a guaranteed brand-new sealed box of tour balls, plus limited editions, collectible designs and other standout finds.

+ $100 BirdieBros Gift Card
Epic Tier15%

Tour Spec

Rare Tier25%

Pin Seeker

Common Tier60%

Fairway Find

Sealed box guaranteed

Any Rare Tier pull or better includes a brand-new sealed box of balls

Pull calculator

Work out your chances

Pick how many Mystery Boxes you're ordering and we'll show the odds of hitting each tier at least once.

1
Jackpot Tier0.5%

Hole-in-One

Chance of hitting this tier in 1 order. Expect about 0.01 across them.

Epic Tier15%

Tour Spec

Chance of hitting this tier in 1 order. Expect about 0.15 across them.

Rare Tier25%

Pin Seeker

Chance of hitting this tier in 1 order. Expect about 0.25 across them.

Common Tier60%

Fairway Find

Chance of hitting this tier in 1 order. Expect about 0.59 across them.

Across 1 order, your chance of landing at least one Rare Tier or better pull — which guarantees a brand-new sealed box — is 41%.

Estimates only. Each order is pulled independently, so results will vary.

Fine print

How the odds work

Independent pulls

Each order is drawn on its own. A jackpot pull doesn't make the next order less likely, and past results never change your odds.

Published rates

The percentages on this page are the rates we pack to. They apply to every Mystery Box, every batch — no hidden pity timers or weighting.

No requests

Boxes mix hand-graded recovered balls with brand-new sealed boxes. Specific brands or models can't be requested or swapped.

Open a pack

Grab your Mystery Box

Want the short version? Back to the Mystery Box page.